Rivers drying, wildebeests dying.
The sun-scorched boulders that ring the shore of Kenya's Lake Baringo are cut by a sharp brown line, running horizontally, that shows the watermark of the past. Beneath the dark divide is an expanse of white stone freshly bared to the elements as the lake has receded dramatically.
A report released last week by Kenya's Water Resource Management Authority has dismissed any hopes that these phenomena could be unrelated.
In the report, Simon Mwangi, the authority's Rift Valley regional technical manager, said that the River Perkerra, which feeds Lake Baringo, and the Malewa which drains into Lake Naivasha, were at their lowest levels on record.
The picture was similarly bleak, he reported, with the Ewaso Nyiro and Mara rivers. The country's great lakes from Turkana in the north to Nakuru, and the economically vital Naivasha, home to Kenya's flower industry, were also alarmingly low.
The answer to the riddle of the Mara's dwindling waters, and the general drought conditions, lies upstream, in the Mau forest.
The Mara river originates on the Mau escarpment, eventually draining into Lake Victoria. The largest remaining forest in Kenya, Mau functions as a water tower for the East African country, feeding rivers and helping to regulate rainfall.
However shocking reports this year have a revealed that the eco-system is under siege from illegal loggers and land-grabbing farmers, as well as large and small recipients of political patronage. Many of those are smallholders receiving parcels of the forest as "land for votes", while Kenya's Daily Nation newspaper named two of the children of former president Daniel arap Moi as among the bigger owners.
There effect is a devastating fragmentation of what environmentalists call an ecological utility whose services stretch from watering Kenya's tea estates to feeding the rivers powering its hydroelectric plants, and regulating temperature and rainfall throughout an often arid land. Despite being home to the headquarters of the United Nations Environment Programme, Kenya has systematically ignored warnings over the importance of conserving the Mau forest. While the troubled coalition government in Nairobi has belatedly begun to recognise the problem, it has so far done next to nothing about it."
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And now there are locusts. What's next, the blood rain?

The Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) "reports that locust swarms have been confirmed in seven regions in the country, including in areas where there is no previous record of infestation," a statement said.
...The vast majority of Ethiopia's 77 million inhabitants depend on subsistence agriculture and have been badly hit by successive infestations of voracious locusts that destroy every plant in their path. ."
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250,000,000 environmental refugees by 2050 looking likely.
Some of the big questions remain unanswered: How many people will really move? Where will they go? How will they go? Will they return?
But experts estimate that as many as 250 million people -- a population almost that of the entire United States -- could be on the move by 2050. They will go because temperatures are rising and desertification has set in where rainfall is needed most. They will go because more potent monsoons are making flood-prone areas worse. They will go because of other water events caused by melting glaciers, rising seas and the slow and deadly seepage of saline water into their wells and fields.
The worst migration cases will be nations like the Maldives and small islands in the Pacific. Their inhabitants will go because their homelands will likely sink beneath the rising sea.
According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, a minimum of 207 million people in Latin America, Asia and Africa will not have enough water inside a decade. In Asia, an extra 130 million people will be at risk of hunger by the middle of the century. By 2100, crop revenues in Africa will drop 90 percent. And scientists see Bangladesh as ground zero."
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Such cheeky pirates!

"Somali pirates in a hijacked ship carrying more than 30 battle tanks were steaming toward a notorious pirate den on Saturday, and they vowed not to release the ship until a $35 million ransom was paid, Somali and Kenyan officials said.
Mr. Mohamed said that while the cargo in this case was extremely unusual — 33 Soviet-designed T-72 tanks and a large supply of ammunition and grenade launchers, all intended for the Kenyan military — the tactics were pretty typical.
“These guys just want the money,” he said.
He predicted that the pirates would reduce their ransom demand to $1 million to $2 million, though Ukrainian officials have not said whether they will pay any ransom at all. " LINK
Food or water? What an awful choice to have to make.

Now, the worldwide food crisis is making many countries in this politically volatile region rethink that math.
The population of the region has more than quadrupled since 1950, to 364 million, and is expected to reach nearly 600 million by 2050. By that time, the amount of fresh water available for each person, already scarce, will be cut in half, and declining resources could inflame political tensions further." LINK
Eat some cashews, I guess.

Cashew nuts are the main export of Guinea-Bissau, a former Portuguese colony wedged between French-speaking Senegal and Guinea. Its 1.6 million people are ranked among the third poorest in the world in development terms by the United Nations.
As world leaders chase solutions to the global crisis caused by soaring food and fuel prices that threaten millions with hardship, Guinea-Bissau's peasant farmers are looking to their cashew crop to see whether they will eat or go hungry this year.
..."Last year, we could only sell our cashews at 25-30 CFA francs (6/7 U.S. cents) a kilo. We suffered a lot and couldn't buy rice," said Chico, a teenage girl with tightly braided hair.
"Now a kilo of rice costs 500 CFA francs ($1.19), last year it was 250 CFA," Chico added, reflecting the squeeze on pockets and bellies that the global food crisis has inflicted in Africa" LINK
Holy sh*t, Marburg is WICKED scary.

The woman, aged 40, died after being taken to hospital following her return to the Netherlands, health authorities there said.
They said she probably contracted the disease while visiting a Ugandan cave inhabited by fruit bats.
Marburg is a contagious disease that causes sudden bleeding and high fever.
There is no treatment or vaccine.
The largest outbreak occurred in 2004-2005 in Angola and killed more than 300 people.
No tourists are known to have previously contracted the disease.
"It is an isolated case of imported Marburg," said WHO spokesman Gregory Hartl.
"People should not think about amending their travel plans to Uganda but should not go into caves with bats."
Dutch health officials said people who had come into contact with the woman on her return were being closely monitored.
In the past, Marburg and the related Ebola virus have caused outbreaks in humans and great apes with mortality rates of 80 to 90%.
Early symptoms of Marburg are diarrhoea, stomach pains, nausea and vomiting, which give way to bleeding. It is spread by the transfer of blood or other bodily fluids. " LINK
Ack. Heartbreaking.

The gist of it is this. European and other demand for fish has decimated African fish stocks to the point that Africans are attempting to enter Europe in record numbers, as their lives are hopeless at home. Meanwhile, a major black market in fish is a 1.6 billion dollar money machine in Europe- where, one presumes, eaters of these endangered and often protected species also complain about the humans who are flooding into Europe trying to stay alive after losing their livelihood- fishing. F*ckity f*ck f*ck. It doesn't get more FUBAR than this.
"“Life is better there. There are no fish in the sea here anymore.”
That has crippled coastal economies and added to the surge of illegal migrants who brave the high seas in wooden pirogues hoping to reach Europe. While reasons for immigration are as varied as fish species, Europe’s lure has clearly intensified as northwest Africa’s fish population has dwindled." LINK to NYT article 1
"Some 50 percent of the fish sold in the European Union originates in developing nations, and much of it is laundered like contraband, caught and shipped illegally beyond the limits of government quotas or treaties. The smuggling operation is well financed and sophisticated, carried out by large-scale mechanized fishing fleets able to sweep up more fish than ever, chasing threatened stocks from ocean to ocean.
If cost is an indication, fish are poised to become Europe’s most precious contraband. Prices have doubled and tripled in response to surging demand, scarcity and recent fishing quotas imposed by the European Union in a desperate effort to save native species. In London, a kilogram of lowly cod, the traditional ingredient of fish and chips, now costs up to £30, or close to $60, up from £6 four years ago. "
LINK to NYT article 2
Open access farming? What?
In this short but dizzying editorial about a subcomittee at Davos adressing African food insecurity, the writer says that Hugh Grant ( the CEO of Monsanto, the super extra evil agricultural company, not the floppy haired charming film star) agreed with the rest of the panel that there were huge issues with ensuring African food security.
Great Scott. Not to sound totally naive here, but when did agricultural patents become so pervasive that people are looking for business models to get around them? Shouldn't food production be, well, always open source? At the farm where I worked, some plants would come with labels warning that propagation was illegal, but these were decorative (and I must say flimsy seeming plants- that Little Wonder campanula died almost immediately every time we had it in) and of course I know about Monsanto's steady war against farmers(including their plan to patent pigs), but I had assumed, apparently naively, that a. Monsanto wouldn't go after the starving- talk about blood from stones, and that b. there were still unpatented crop seeds out there so that food production would not be an illegal act."Yes, he said, new crops could help Africa - but only if the world finds a way to get the technology to a continent that cannot pay for it. He pointed to the model of the pharmaceutical industry, which restricted the distribution of HIV retroviral drugs and limited research into malaria, both essential to Africa's needs, on profit grounds.
But what other model is there? The new idea to emerge from the meeting was that the agro-industrial complex needs to let go, not put all its faith and future profits into patents but share skills. The model might be the open-source software industry, which has its big players but does not restrict access or development.
Could Linux be a model for farming? Monsanto might find the transition hard to make. But a world in which all food is produced from seeds owned by a handful of big companies is not one that would be good for Africans, or for anyone else." LINK
I guess I'm making myself sound stupid- I did know that it's illegal to save seeds, I did know that the big agro companies will go after you if you do- I just hoped that they weren't going after desperate and starving peoples for trying to grow food. But after watching big pharma try to charge those same people for retroviral drugs to combat HIV, Hugh Grant must have felt inspired.
And some days, I wish I believed in hell.
Wildebeest migration threatened by drought.

Desert shrimps. Huh.
Damn.
LINK to photostory about Nigeria's locust problem- and solution.
It's not just critters disappearing.
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